BSI Chapter 112 Risk Hedging
Chapter 112 Risk Hedging
The third quarter of the hour of Zi (11:45 PM).
The clanging and hammering finally stopped, and the craftsmen dispersed in twos and threes to return to their lodgings to rest. The large workshop fell silent, with only a few oil lamps still burning, flickering in the night breeze.
In the small house in the backyard, Lu Yan sat alone at his desk, with an account book and several drawings spread out in front of him.
The flame of the oil lamp flickered gently, casting his shadow on the wall, sometimes long, sometimes short.
The ledger recorded every expense of the waterworks project—370 catties of copper, worth 148 taels of silver; 20 taels of silver in advance payment for the watchmaker Zhou Laosi; and an extra 15 taels of silver for overtime pay from Zhao Tie's side this month…
"We've gone over budget." Lu Yan marked a line on the ledger with a charcoal pencil. "It's thirty-five taels more than the budget. The main problem is that gear; it had to be reworked three times."
He thought to himself: This slight overspending isn't a big deal, but it shows that the craftsmanship isn't stable yet. When it's officially made for the palace, we must allow for sufficient redundancy.
Next to him was a progress chart for the water treatment project. He marked it with his own symbols: the reservoir is complete, the main pipeline is 80% laid, the diversion valve is being tested, and the gear assembly of the automaton is still under construction...
"The project is three days ahead of schedule." Lu Yan ticked a box on the progress chart. "But we still need to keep an eye on the key components. Uncle Zhao's team is short-handed, so we'll have to send two more apprentices over to help tomorrow."
This is his habit. No matter how late it is, he goes through the accounts and progress every day. It's an occupational hazard he developed on construction sites in his past life, and he can't break it.
He closed the ledger, rubbed his sore eyes, leaned back in his chair, and let out a long sigh.
There was another untouched document on the table—a summary of intelligence that Shen Qing had delivered that evening, sealed with sealing wax and marked with the word "Secret".
Lu Yan picked up the intelligence report, unsealed it, and began to read it by the light of an oil lamp.
The first page contained news from the capital. It came from Wang Tiqian's side, and although it was secondhand information, it was much more detailed than the official gazettes from outside.
"...Eunuch Wei has recently impeached several censors, and the Censorate is practically his own."
"Yang Lian, Zuo Guangdou, Wei Dazhong, and others have been imprisoned by the imperial court. I heard that Tian Ergeng personally interrogated them. It's easy to get in but hard to get out of that place; their chances of survival are slim."
"The Emperor's health... his subordinates dared not say much, but they vaguely indicated that he had been coughing frequently lately, and the Imperial Hospital had never stopped supplying him with medicine."
Lu Yan's gaze lingered on the words "the Emperor's health" for a moment.
The Tianqi Emperor is only eighteen years old this year.
He remembered clearly that the Tianqi Emperor died in 1627, four years before his death. But during those four years, the young emperor was constantly ill, and despite trying all sorts of remedies, he did not get better.
"Four years," Lu Yan silently repeated the number in his mind.
The second page is about Wei Zhongxian. This storyline, provided by Liu Cheng, is more explicit and bloodier than Wang Tiqian's.
"Eunuch Wei is currently purging the Donglin Party, and no one on the list can escape. Cui Chengxiu is receiving invitations every day—pleading for mercy, informing, and reporting... his doorstep is practically worn down."
"Tian Ergeng's Imperial Guards are arresting people all over the capital, and the imperial prison is already overflowing. It is said that the Ministry of Justice has also vacated several rooms specifically to hold those 'important criminals'."
"When Eunuch Wei goes out now, his entourage is even grander than the Emperor's. Some people say privately that he's 'the Ninth Prince,' and the next one up would be 'the Ten Thousand Years'..."
Lu Yan sneered.
Nine thousand years old.
The higher you climb, the harder you fall. Don't the eunuchs understand this principle?
No, they understand. It's just that once you're hooked on power, you can't let go. Even knowing there's a precipice ahead, they'll still go all the way to the very end.
The third page contains Shen Qing's own analysis. The handwriting is neat and the logic is clear, indicating that he is an experienced writer.
"Your subordinate dares to speak boldly: Duke Wei's power is already at its peak, like oil being poured on a raging fire. While the current emperor is alive, no one can touch him; but if something happens to the current emperor and a new emperor ascends the throne, Duke Wei will surely become the target of everyone's anger."
"Although the Donglin Party members have suffered a great calamity, their roots in the literati are deep and cannot be eradicated in one or two purges. Once they rise again, their counterattack will be fierce."
"I believe that the Duke of Wei's power will last no more than five years. After five years, the situation will inevitably change. Please make preparations as soon as possible."
After reading it, Lu Yan remained silent for a long time.
Shen Qing's analysis perfectly matched the history he knew. He was not just an intelligence chief, but also a strategist with strategic vision.
He placed the intelligence on the table and tapped it lightly with his fingers, making a "tap-tap" sound.
Five years.
No, to be precise, it was four years.
Four years later, Emperor Tianqi died, Emperor Chongzhen ascended the throne, Wei Zhongxian fell from power, and the eunuch faction was purged.
What will happen to him, this "outsider of the eunuch faction"?
All the benefits received from Wei Zhongxian must be returned; the connections cultivated will become death warrants; even this official position of the eighth rank may be lost.
Lu Yan stood up, walked to the window, and opened it.
A night breeze swept in, carrying the chill of early autumn. In the distant workshop, the three-zhang-tall wooden frame cast a huge shadow under the moonlight.
He took a deep breath to calm himself down.
Panic won't help in situations like this. You need to approach it like an engineering project: break the problem down into smaller parts and then find solutions one by one.
Question 1: Wei Zhongxian, this powerful figure, will fall in four years. When the tree falls, the monkeys scatter. How can I avoid being crushed by the falling tree?
Question 2: The Donglin Party members are currently being suppressed, but they may make a comeback in four years. How can one place bets on them in advance without getting into trouble?
Question 3: In the event of a dramatic change in the political situation, how can we protect our foundation in Dengzhou, our business in Jinan, and the hundreds of people under our command?
Think about them one by one.
The solution to the first problem is—don't rely on just one person. Find other powerful backers besides Wei Zhongxian. Not replacements, but backups.
But during the Tianqi reign, besides Wei Zhongxian, who else was there?
What about the civil officials in the cabinet? Grand Secretary Gu Bingqian was Wei Zhongxian's man, as was Second Grand Secretary Ding Shaoshi. The rest were either opportunists or in dire straits themselves.
A prince? Even less likely. Civil officials were more wary of princes than of thieves.
All that's left is...
Lu Yan's gaze fell on the intelligence report on the table.
"Although the Donglin Party members suffered great calamities, their roots in the literati remained deep..."
The Donglin Party.
The moment the thought popped into his head, he was startled.
The Donglin Party and the eunuch party were mortal enemies, irreconcilable. He's now a member of the eunuch party; going against the Donglin Party would be suicidal, wouldn't it?
But then I thought about it again, and realized that wasn't right.
Four years later, the eunuch faction fell, and the Donglin Party came to power. At that time, whoever had "favors from the Donglin Party" was considered one of their own.
When is the best time to cultivate "human relationships"?
Providing timely help.
Instead of waiting for someone to turn their life around before adding to their success, we should quietly lend a helping hand when they are in trouble.
Lu Yan walked back to the desk, sat down again, picked up the charcoal pencil, and wrote a few words on a piece of white paper:
"Long-term investment - Donglin Party"
Then, he began to calculate the costs in his mind.
First, how great is the risk?
If it were discovered that he was secretly protecting the families of Donglin Party members, Wei Zhongxian would immediately turn against him. Not only would relations be completely severed, but he might also be treated as an "internal traitor." He didn't want to experience the methods of the Embroidered Uniform Guard.
Therefore, it must be kept absolutely secret. The fewer people who know, the better; ideally, only he and Shen Qing should know.
Secondly, how high is the cost?
The core figures of the Donglin Party, such as Yang Lian, Zuo Guangdou, and Wei Dazhong, have already been imprisoned and it is estimated that they cannot be rescued. Their families are probably still outside.
And then there are those who were implicated, had their homes confiscated, were exiled... scattered here and there, there must be quite a few.
He doesn't need to save them all; he just needs to pick a few who are important.
Once the whole family is settled, their annual expenses, including food, clothing, and other necessities, plus bribes, should be around three to five hundred taels. For three to five families, that's two to three thousand taels a year.
He can afford to pay this amount.
Secondly, how much benefit is there?
Four years later, the Donglin Party made a comeback, and those he had saved became his best "endorsement of trust." He didn't ask for anything in return; he only needed them to speak up for him in crucial moments.
In fact, if handled well, these people could even become his "hidden agents" within the Donglin Party.
"Worth it." Lu Yan mentally rated the project.
Investment is manageable, risks are manageable, and expected returns are high. Worth a try.
He wrote another line on the paper: "Executor: Shen Qing. Budget: Three thousand taels. Objective: Identify and secretly settle the families of three to five key figures in the Donglin Party."
After he finished writing, he stared at the paper for a long time, and then suddenly laughed.
This is his "moral patch" for himself.
He used the eunuch party's money to support the Donglin Party members. He acted as a "loyal minister" to Wei Zhongxian on one hand, and a "benefactor" to the Donglin Party on the other. No matter who came to power in the future, he would have a way out.
Is it hypocritical?
Somewhat.
But in this world, you can't survive without being a little hypocritical.
He recalled his past life in Africa. Back then, he was building a hydroelectric power station in a war-torn country. One day, government troops would come asking for "sponsorship," and the next day, anti-government forces would come demanding "protection money." He paid money to both sides, trying not to offend either. The project manager at the construction site told him, "You have to leave a way out for everyone who might rise to power. That way, no matter who wins, you'll have a way out."
He always remembered those words.
Now we're just taking that old system and applying it to the Ming Dynasty.
Lu Yan put away the paper, took out a new one from the drawer, and began writing a letter to Shen Qing.
The letter was short, but every word was carefully chosen:
"Shen Qing: Starting today, investigate the whereabouts of the families of Yang Lian, Zuo Guangdou, and Wei Dazhong. If found, secretly escort them to Changshan Island for resettlement. The necessary funds will be drawn from the Shadow Guard's budget, with no upper limit. This matter must not be known to any third party except you and me. Remember this."
After writing it, he read it over again to make sure there were no problems before folding it up, putting it in an envelope, and sealing it with sealing wax.
Just as I was about to call for help, I heard soft footsteps outside the door.
"Master, are you still awake?"
It was Shen Qing's voice.
"Come in."
The door opened silently, and Shen Qing slipped inside. He was dressed in a dark brown outfit, his face glistening with night dew, clearly having just returned from outside.
"I just came from the dock," Shen Qing said in a low voice. "Our ship will depart early tomorrow morning; the cargo for Dengzhou is all loaded."
"Okay." Lu Yan nodded and handed him the letter he had just written. "Keep this letter safe. Arrange for someone to take care of it first thing tomorrow morning."
Shen Qing took the letter, glanced at the sealing wax, and without asking any questions, put it directly into his pocket.
"Also," Lu Yan said, "starting tomorrow, the Shadow Guards will have an additional task—to gather information on the movements of the families of fallen officials in the capital. Keep a close eye on the families of Yang Lian, Zuo Guangdou, and Wei Dazhong. Report to me immediately if you have any news."
A strange light flashed in Shen Qing's eyes, but he quickly regained his composure.
"Understood."
He knew his boss was setting up another scheme. He didn't understand it, nor did he need to. His only task was to execute it.
"Go ahead." Lu Yan waved his hand.
Shen Qing silently withdrew.
The cabin fell silent again.
Lu Yan sat back down at his desk, picked up the waterworks progress chart, and looked at it again.
I need to go to the workshop tomorrow to keep an eye on things. The tolerance issue with that gear needs to be resolved.
He carefully put away the account books, intelligence reports, and progress schedules, blew out the oil lamp, and sat in the darkness for a while.
A few faint barks came from afar.
Four years.
He had four years to prepare for the coming storm.
enough.
Lu Yan stood up, pushed open the door, and walked towards his residence.
A cool night breeze brushed his face. He looked up at the night sky, where countless stars twinkled and the Milky Way stretched across the heavens.
"To survive, and to live well."
He said to himself.
Then, stride forward.